2022 Stock Crash


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See also FOMC and GDP, daily job cuts [1] us debt clock [2]

Rising rates causes stocks to go down, stocks hit worst can be real estate trusts [3] so can also cause a housing collapse.

Good writeup [4] one thing to note is the fed raises rates and sells bonds both will cause bond prices to fall, but the interest rate of returns for the bonds to rise which will make investors flee stocks to buy bonds.

Possible deflation due to china collapse [5]

Roubini calling for severe recession [6]

Payroll growth lagging indicator as people are taking on multiple jobs [7]

Dow Jones DJIA is the one leading on all changes, TSLA was never accepted there but it has the top 30 companies. [8]

DJIA is about 10 T dollars marketcap as of 9/23/2022 [9]

On May 1st 2020 Elon said that he sold almost all his physical possessions and will own no house [10]

May 1st 2020 tweets tesla share price too high and 14 B dollars were wiped off the stock from someone selling [11]

4/28/2022 Elon musk sells 8.5 B dollars worth of tesla stocks [12]

8/9/2022 Elon musk sells 8 million TSLA shares totaling 6.9 B dollars [13]

As of 9/23/2022 Elon has a 250 B dollar net worth [14]

9/29/22 china tells banks to get ready to dump dollars for yuan [15] which could mean a relief rally in stocks and crypto

9/30/22 elon musk leaked texts [16]


Calculating the bottom [17] personally I think the bottom will be 3k djia for a 90% collapse from where we are currently. Perhaps it will only be 90% crash after being adjusted for inflation. Which means it would inflate slower than everything else does. This makes sense as to be the end case because the government spending money to reduce inflation just increases inflation more because all government spending creates new money which causes more inflation by definition.

Fed has tons of bonds trillions of dollars [18]. So all things considered what will probably happen is fed will bring rates up to 4.5% then pause and elon will send djia to 55k, then fed will dump bonds causing stock holders to flee into bonds and great depression begins. following predictions are based on interest rate predictions for different FOMC dates listed here [19]

Stocks start rallying along with ETH and DOGE around december 14th, accelerate Feb 1st 2023, and go vertical may 3rd 2023. Stocks will max around DJIA of 55k. Then the Federal reserve will say they have no choice but to run off balance sheet and sell bonds in order to deflate stocks, which will cause great depression.

When GDP growth slows thats recession/depression. us debt clock [20] predicts net negative GDP growth till 2026.

9/23/2022 I'm curious what level we have to for sure hold in DJIA to get the double top like bitcoin had. I'm thinking 20k preferably 25k. I predict that if we see wyckoff at one of those two levels (or both) for a few months then the double top could be still possible. I'm expecting the run to begin sometime between december 14th and July 26th [21]. This double top will cause the FED to run off their balance sheet (sell bonds and mortgage backed securities) and cause stock market to collapse as everyone moves to low cost high yield bonds. Thus beginning the great depression and everyone being jobless and homeless cause the companies and banks will go under and banks won't be loaning for houses.

Stocks increase faster after

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