2020 Bull Run

Timeline

5/11/20

Bitcoin halving to 6.25 BTC per block of 10 mins [1]. BTC at 8k.

12/16/20

Bitcoin surpasses previous all time high. BTC at 22k

1/8/21

BTC reaches 41k.

1/11/21

9000 btc dump [2].

1000 btc dump [3].

12000 btc moved [4]

Mostly privacy coins benefit horizen, zcash, dash, neo, monero

2/8/21

Tesla accepts BTC and buys $1.5 billion worth [5]. BTC price 47k.

2/19/21

Miami mayor announces he wants to personally buy bitcoin [6]. I remember the winkelvoss twins wanted him to hurry because they probably knew the bull run was nearing its peak. BTC at 56k.

2/21/21

BTC reaches 58k.

3/13/21

BTC reaches 62k.

4/14/21

Coinbase goes public listed COIN [7]

4/24/21

BTC reaches first peak of 63k.

4/26/21

Tesla announces selling 10% of BTC on Q1 earnings [8]. BTC at 54k.

5/8/21

Barry Silbert who is linked to coinbase and digital currency group announces shorting of Dogecoin [9]. Elon musk appears on saturday night live promoting Dogecoin [10]. BTC at 59k.

5/12/21

Tesla halts accepting BTC citing environmental concerns [11]. BTC at 50k.

5/17/21

A few days after halting BTC acceptance elon announces tesla has not sold any bitcoin [12]. BTC at 44k.

5/23/21

BTC crashes to 34k.

6/13/21

Elon announces tesla has only sold 10% of BTC and will resume acceptance when 50% of mining green [13]

7/20/21

BTC draws down to 29k.

8/3/21

Miami coin launch [14]

11/2/21

Miami mayor accepts next paycheck in bitcoin [15]

11/9/21

BTC reaches double top of 69k.

1/10/22

Mostly longs liquidated [16]

5/3/22

Microstrategy CFO declares they would face margin call and liquidate BTC if price hits 21k [17]. BTC at 38k.

5/12/22

Terra Luna sells 80,000 bitcoin at market price of $3 billion [18]. BTC tumbles to 26k.

6/13/22

Celcius network goes belly up [19]

6/14/22

Saylor declares that they will not have to post more collateral unless bitcoin goes to 3.5k [20]. BTC at 23k.

6/17/22

Babel finance suspends withdrawls [21] later on june 29th they will admit to loosing $280M in customer funds.

6/18/22

BTC tumbles to 17k.

6/20/22

Binance may have bought the dip (contested by ceo) 100k coins at a price of $2 billion added to their wallet as price bounced back to 20k [22].

6/23/22

Harmony bridge on ethereum virtual machine exploited to steal $100M [23]

7/1/22

3AC and Voyager digital go belly up [24]

7/4/22

Vauld goes under [25]

7/7/22

Coinflex a major player on SmartBCH goes under [26]

7/8/22

Binance launches fee free BTC trading [27] in an attempt to increase volume and stabilize the price. I remember reading an article maybe in july that binance recieved 3 billion dollars or so to stabilize bitcoin price but I cant find it now.

7/17/22

Coinbase teetering on bankruptcy [28]

Miners selling most of their coins [29]

7/20/22

Elon announces tesla sold 75% of bitcoin. New $3B whale (3bwhale) makes purchases 19th, 20th, and 21st totalling 133k bitcoins at roughly $23.5k per coin [30]. BTC 24k peak.

$10 billion worth of bitcoin leaves exchanges total [31] likely due to investors loosing confidence in coinbase.

7/27/22

3bwhale sells 500 btc. BTC at $23k

7/29/22

3bwhale sells 500 btc. Looks to me like a possible binance wallet used to stabilize BTC price in the 23-24k range. My belief is their first target (with other wallets) was reclaim previous ATH, then reclaim 200 wma, now reclaim and hold new price targets. But my fear is that bigger whales will dump and put all these buys above 20k into the red for a long time.

Babel finance announces they lost $280M in customer funds [32] BTC at $24k.

8/2/22

Michael Saylor aka 'saylor moon' looses CEO position amid billion dollar BTC loss for shareholders [33]

8/5/22

Whale that had supported price now removes their buy wall [34]

8/7/22

Zipmex exchange pauses withdrawls (goes bankrupt) [35]

8/19/22

BTC was 25k on Aug 15 and crashed to 21k by August 19.

Coins moved in crash that have been inactive for 3-5 years, wallets 1k-10k moved many coins but actually wallets 100-1k moved the most) [36] [37] which means the whale selling might have bought at under 4k. If this same group of whales bought it from 3.5k to 69k and are now dumping, it could possibly go all the way down back towards 4k.

BCBacker youtube twitter is predicting a possible pump to 40k then a drop down below 17k in the near term which I agree with.

8/20/22

BTC now below realized price after last crash and long term holder vs short term graph shows that things will get much worse this bear market [38]

8/23/22

BTC taken off exchanges like never before report [39] which means there will be less volume and probably more volatility in price.

LTH SOPR falls to 0.38 [40]

Tesla's bitcoin sales netted the company $68 million [41]

BTC while above realized price for 23 days, with the latest selloff is now below realized price [42]

8/26/22

Demand still in the mud [43] confirming still years left in bear market.

9/4/22

Poolin suspends withdrawls due to liqudity issues [44]. Turns out they were defi yield farming in addition to a pow mining pool [45]

Bottom

Bottom may not yet be in even at 17k and may go even lower than that, according to "Long term holder spend output profit ratio 20 day simple moving average" or LTH SOPR 20 day SMA [46] [47]. But since there was no blow off top this indicator probably will never go as deep as it has in the past I expect it to be low for longer time period. It just started as of 6/8/22 and should last at least a year to june 2023 (bear market) at a minimum and probably until jan 2024 I am guessing after which people will frontrun (buy in anticipation of) the halving. Usually the bull market resumes at the bitcoin halving which will next occur [48] april 5th 2024.

Pain might not be over yet as of sept 14 2022 [49]

I predict that if crypto goes this year especially altcoins, it will happen after the december 14th 2022 fed meeting at which it is expected that interest rates level off at around 4.5%.

Coin days destroyed [50]

To do

List all microstrategy buys

Coinbase stock prices

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